KNBR said it, I'll dispute it: Fernando vs. Lincecum

After Tuesday night's instructional video on how NOT to call a game (as always, Krukow keeps it classy), You would think I would have had just about enough of KNBR's clown car for one season. And you would be correct, I certainly have. However, when I climbed into my old, trusty, Toyota for a quick jaunt to the nearest Slurpee machine today, the radio was tuned to AM 680, surely a remnant of this week's earlier series against my most beloved Los Angeles Dodgers. I was immediately enthralled by the discussion the announcers were having. I don't know which talking heads they were (I just know they WEREN'T Krukow or Gary Radnich), but the discussion they were having was a sort of reminiscence/tribute/farewell to Tim Lincecum. Now, despite my personal feelings towards "The Freak", I'm not at all bothered by this. In fact, it would be somewhat absurd, given the amount of love and admiration the San Francisco fan base held for Big Time Timmy Jims (whatever the hell that means) if the flagship station for the Giants did NOT recognize him in some way. I did not anticipate, however, where this particular talking head was about to go with this conversation. He made a statement, set up with a pre-emptive apology, that Tim Lincecum, in many ways, reminded him of Fernando Valenzuela. I confess, I was impressed by this analogy. It seemed to be a decent comparison: both guys burned brightly for a short period of time, both led their teams to multiple World Championships, both had odd deliveries, and most importantly, both guys captured the hearts of their respective, adoptive home cities. It was complimentary to both players and showed a degree of respect for Giants' opponents. What happened next shouldn't have surprised me at all. This homer simply couldn't restrain himself, he couldn't just let his statement float and settle, he had to take a shot at the Dodger legend: "Don't get me wrong, Lincecum is clearly the better pitcher of the two."

Is that a fact?

I decided to investigate this statement for myself. Obviously, I cannot claim complete neutrality in this investigation, but I can promise to report the facts honestly.

First, the "ground rules". Since Lincecum's career, to this point, has spanned 9 seasons and Fernando's spanned seventeen, it would obviously not be fair to simply point out that "look! Fernando had more career everythings than Lincecum did," so instead,  I decided to compare Fernando's first nine seasons to Lincecum's. These seasons spanned from 1981-1990. I did not include Fernando's 1980 season, in which he pitched in 17 innings across 10 games, picked up two victories and had an ERA of 0.00. Indeed, Fernando's first season was truly 1981, the year of FernandoMania and the year he acquired a Rookie of the Year Trophy. By contrast, Lincecum's first season was 24-start effort in which he pitched 146 innings, so there is no "grace period" for him.

Fernando Valenzuela:

El Toro. As I just mentioned, Fernando Valenzuela set the world on fire in 1981, clinching the Rookie of the Year Award, Cy Young Award, a Silver Slugger award (not a particularly meaningful award for a pitcher, but an award, nevertheless), and most importantly, a World Series Championship for the Los Angeles Dodgers. He won 13 games in a strike-shortened season, 11 of which were complete games, and 8 of those were shutouts. He also lead the league in strikeouts (180) and Innings Pitched (192).  1981 was also the first of SIX consecutive All-Star game selections, the last of which (1986) culminated in Valenzuela tying Carl Hubbell's record by striking out five consecutive batters in an All-Star game. One of his victims? Don Mattingly. Truly, 1986 was his finest year, as he went 21-11 with an astounding 20 complete games (a stat that likely indicates exactly why longevity was a problem for El Toro), a 3.14 ERA and 242 strikeouts. 

All told, this is how Fernando fared in his 9 year span (1981-1990):

W-L              ERA            K              CG            W%

139-116         3.70           1743           107(!!)       .545 

- 1 No-Hitter

- 2 World Series Championships (1981, 1988)

- 1 Rookie of the Year (1981)

- 6 All-Star Appearances

- 1 Cy Young Award (1981)

Tim Lincecum: 

The Freak. After his pedestrian but promising rookie campaign in 2007 (7-5, 4.00), Lincecum broke out in a major way in 2008. That year, he won 18 games (accompanied by an other-worldly .783 winning percentage), set an all-time Giants team record with 265 strikeouts in a season (which also led the league), and won his first of back-to-back Cy Young Awards. In 2009, he led the league in strikeouts again, as well as in complete games (4), and shutouts (2). Lincecum went on a 4-year consecutive run of All-Star appearance ('08-11), and by the end of his run, had thrown no-hitters in consecutive seasons. In fact, in a true testament to his dominance,  Tim Lincecum stands with only Sandy Koufax as the only pitchers with two Cy Young awards, two World Series Championships,  and two no-hitters in a career. Of course, as we are all unfortunately too aware,  Lincecum would end up winning a 3rd World Series, again standing alone with Koufax as the only pitchers who can claim such a resume. 

Here's Timmy's 9-year line:

W-L              ERA               K                 CG              W%

108-83           3.61              1704              10              .565

- 2  No-hitters

- 3 World Series Championships (2010, 2012, 2014)

- 4 All-Star Appearances

- 2 Cy Young Awards ( 2008, 2009)

So, is Tim Lincecum clearly better than Fernando Valenzuela? Sure, Lincecum has more hardware, but the overall numbers are very close. Fernando has more wins, strikeouts, and complete games. Lincecum, despite his insane 2008 W%, is only 2 one-hundredths of a percent higher, in total than Fernando. Granted, in baseball, that's a hell of a lot. The difference between hitting .270 or .290. I'm not prepared to say that Tim is clearly better than Fernando, but those Koufax numbers are persuasive. Of course, outside of the no-hitters, a lot of those stats have a lot to do with team performance. There is no question that Lincecum has ample opportunity to surpass Fernando (he's only 31), but it a bit early to jump to that conclusion just yet. Besides... you know where this is going...